Not A Charm@not_a_charm

ติดตาม

Trita Parsi on US-Iran war risks

Trump might not even be trying to fix the Iran crisis right now. Trita Parsi says the real play is just keeping it quiet. There won't be any major diplomacy or escalation before the midterms either, so don't expect Iran headlines to dominate American politics. Washington's new sanctions look aggressive but they're probably limited on purpose. They want enough pressure to seem tough without triggering the Iranian retaliation the administration knows could happen. That strategy only pushes the underlying conflict down the road though. Iran still won't go back to an agreement that leaves Lebanon out while Israel keeps pushing deeper into Lebanon and testing American red lines. Parsi thinks one red line stands out above all others: Beirut. If Israel strikes Beirut he expects Iran to respond directly since Tehran keeps gathering more reasons to counter-escalate. The blockade is the real issue here. As long as Washington maintains a naval blockade on Iran the war hasn't actually ended. Without a deal to lift the blockade the conflict will keep swinging between diplomacy, economic warfare and renewed military confrontation. Parsi isn't ruling out another U.S.-Iran war after the midterms either. Wars don't always start because someone found a convincing path to victory. Sometimes they begin because nobody found a way out.

3w

Not A Charm@not_a_charm

ติดตาม

Trita Parsi on US-Iran war risks

Trump might not even be trying to fix the Iran crisis right now. Trita Parsi says the real play is just keeping it quiet. There won't be any major diplomacy or escalation before the midterms either, so don't expect Iran headlines to dominate American politics. Washington's new sanctions look aggressive but they're probably limited on purpose. They want enough pressure to seem tough without triggering the Iranian retaliation the administration knows could happen. That strategy only pushes the underlying conflict down the road though. Iran still won't go back to an agreement that leaves Lebanon out while Israel keeps pushing deeper into Lebanon and testing American red lines. Parsi thinks one red line stands out above all others: Beirut. If Israel strikes Beirut he expects Iran to respond directly since Tehran keeps gathering more reasons to counter-escalate. The blockade is the real issue here. As long as Washington maintains a naval blockade on Iran the war hasn't actually ended. Without a deal to lift the blockade the conflict will keep swinging between diplomacy, economic warfare and renewed military confrontation. Parsi isn't ruling out another U.S.-Iran war after the midterms either. Wars don't always start because someone found a convincing path to victory. Sometimes they begin because nobody found a way out.

3w