@jolyonProf. Robert Pape thinks the repeated Trump walk-backs on Iran aren't about avoiding war. They're a sign Washington is stuck. The choice is between letting Iran keep gaining leverage over the Strait of Hormuz or starting a conflict with no clear ending. He expects a slow escalation where higher oil prices, retaliation, economic strain, and politics at home keep shrinking Trump's options. Bigger picture: the post-1991 unipolar era is fading while Iran grows stronger. His warning is simple, hesitation isn't peace, and paralysis can be conflict waiting for its next trigger.

@jolyonProf. Robert Pape thinks the repeated Trump walk-backs on Iran aren't about avoiding war. They're a sign Washington is stuck. The choice is between letting Iran keep gaining leverage over the Strait of Hormuz or starting a conflict with no clear ending. He expects a slow escalation where higher oil prices, retaliation, economic strain, and politics at home keep shrinking Trump's options. Bigger picture: the post-1991 unipolar era is fading while Iran grows stronger. His warning is simple, hesitation isn't peace, and paralysis can be conflict waiting for its next trigger.